David Akin's Roundup: Barely sustainable. Budget vote. G20 upended.

SAT NOV 15

Canada

2025 budget leaves “little room” for future risks, watchdog finds

The Carney government’s economic plan for Canada is under the microscope, as the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released its assessment of the Liberals proposed spending plan. It comes just ahead of Monday’s confidence vote on the budget, which could trigger an election. Ottawa’s financial watchdog said the government’s fiscal targets are misleading and unrealistic, and that the ballooning deficit leaves little room to increase spending or cut taxes. However, overall the PBO also concluded that the government’s finances are sustainable. As David Akin explains, that assessment represents a dramatic U-turn. | Global National

Budget 2025: Issues for Parliamentarians

PBO maintains its view that the Government’s definition of capital investments is overly expansive. Based on PBO’s definition, capital investments would total $217.3 billion over 2024-25 to 2029-30—approximately 30 per cent ($94 billion) lower compared to Budget 2025. Moreover, based on PBO’s definition, the day-to-day operating balance after new measures would remain in a deficit position ….

[but] … based on Finance Canada projections, current fiscal policy in Budget 2025 would be deemed sustainable over the long term. That said, there would be limited fiscal room to reduce revenues or increase program spending (relative to the baseline) while ensuring the federal debt-to-GDP ratio in 2055-56 is at or below its initial level. This contrasts with fiscal policy settings over the last 3 years that would have provided more fiscal room to address future challenges and risks. | Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Conservatives won’t say if MPs will be forced to vote against budget

Asked by reporters in Calgary on Friday if he was confident that all his members of Parliament would vote against the budget in the House of Commons on Monday, Poilievre wouldn’t directly answer. “One hundred per cent of our MPs oppose the costly Carney credit card budget, that is going to drive up the cost of food, housing and living for Canadians,” he said. While Poilievre is confident his caucus opposes the budget, not all his MPs have shown their opposition when it counts most in the House of Commons. Four Conservative MPs did not vote on Conservative and Bloc Quebecois amendments to the budget last week, which were also confidence votes. | Globalnews.ca

Carney’s four paths to dodge an election and pass his budget

As of Friday afternoon, the NDP had also not decided how its members will vote, a party official confirmed. The Star has previously reported that some of the seven New Democrats in the House could abstain or vote against the budget, while others could support it. Green Leader Elizabeth May, her party’s only MP, told the Star she will vote against the budget as it’s currently written, but hopes ongoing talks with the government will produce changes she can support. | TorStar (🎁 link)

Environmentalists raise alarm over Canada’s proposed major infrastructure projects

Reaction is pouring in to Mark Carney’s growing list of proposed infrastructure projects. Six more projects were added to the federal government’s fast-track list on Thursday, which the prime minister says will help establish Canada as an energy superpower. But those proposed plans are facing fierce resistance, including from environmentalists. Jillian Piper reports. | Global National

Busy Tory MP Jivani says he doesn’t have time for party infighting

“(These things) are tied together in so far as I’m involved in all of them, and they all sort of reflect the sentiments that I’m hearing from Canadians, and young Canadians in particular,” said the 38-year-old Jivani, when asked whether there was common thread to the causes listed on his website. Jivani has lately been spending a lot of time meeting young Canadians where they’re at, kicking off a campus tour with fellow Conservative MP Ned Kuruc last month. | National Post

Government Economics of Expanding Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying to Vulnerable Populations and the Ethical Implications of Allowing the State to Control Death

I spotted this journal article on the Facebook feeds of some Conservative MPs opposed to MAID. Those MPs are taking notice. I suspect this will force some new debates in Parliament. This study explores the potential economic savings from expanding medical assistance in dying (MAiD) in Canada, where it is currently a leading cause of death, to include vulnerable groups that cost the government more than they contribute in taxes. These groups include individuals with severe mental health issues, the homeless, drug users, retired elderly, and indigenous communities. Both voluntary and non-voluntary scenarios were analyzed, projecting total savings of up to CAD $1.273 trillion by 2047. With an estimated 2.6 million deaths in the voluntary scenario, mostly among mentally ill and elderly populations, this cost-saving measure raises significant ethical concerns. Financially incentivizing MAiD could shift healthcare priorities away from providing necessary support, potentially devaluing vulnerable lives and fostering a troubling reliance on assisted death as an economic solution. The findings highlight a need for ethical scrutiny of MAiD policy expansion. | Journal of Death and Dying

Fact File: No ‘plan’ to ‘euthanize’ 15 million Canadians with MAID

There are no “plans” by Heath Canada to force MAID on patients, who must meet certain criteria to choose assisted dying, and a palliative care doctor says the article’s scenario overstates the number of expected MAID deaths. One of the article’s co-authors emphasized the paper was a “scenario analysis” and acknowledged its findings do not represent the current reality of MAID in Canada. | CP

Cannings endorses Heather McPherson

McPherson shared a testimonial from [former NDP MP Richard] Cannings, who reflected on their six years working together in Ottawa. He praised her dedication, strong work ethic, and ability to earn respect across party lines. Cannings described McPherson as a prepared and solutions-focused leader, citing her advocacy on issues ranging from opposition to coal mining in the Rockies to broader national climate action. | Penticton Herald

Some NDP leadership candidates report struggling to meet conditions to remain in race

A campaign spokesperson for Tanille Johnston, a city councillor in Campbell River, B.C., said she will be able to make the $25,000 payment allowing her to stay in the race and appear on the debate stage in Montreal later this month. The Johnston campaign said late Thursday it was optimistic but not certain about reaching the fundraising threshold. | CP

The Provinces

New Brunswick mine added to major projects but opponents say it’ll do more harm than good

For environmental groups, the major projects designation is a disappointment. “The mine itself is going to be taking up, basically destroying, a large amount of land in the area,” said Beverly Gingras, the executive director of the Conservation Council of New Brunswick. | Globalnews.ca

Five things to know about Quebec graphite mine added to major projects list

Dominic LeBlanc, minister of intergovernmental affairs, says that once operational the mine will supply Canada and its allies with a critical mineral used for electric vehicle batteries, energy storage systems, and defence. Nouveau Monde CEO Eric Desaulniers says graphite has more than a dozen other uses, including for advanced polymers and thermoplastics. The federal government already signed a binding term sheet with the company to buy some of the mine’s future output for Canada and allied countries. | Globalnews.ca

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Elsewhere

How Trump’s Redlines Have Upended the G20 Summit in South Africa

More than a dozen participating G20 officials said the United States had spent much of the year drawing red lines, skipping working meetings and refusing to negotiate in the lead-up to the final gathering in Johannesburg. The moves, they said, put into stark relief Mr. Trump’s aggressive foreign policy and distaste for multilateralism, compromise and anything he considers political correctness. “This is not at all normal,” said Michelle Gavin, a former American diplomat in Africa. “It’s petulant and ultimately self-defeating. What we’re doing is losing an opportunity to influence the international discourse.” | NYT (🎁 link)

Carney heads to the UAE amid questions about atrocities in Sudan

“There have been reports of Canadian weapons on the ground in Darfur for, I think, a decade now,” said Michael Bueckert of Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East, which has called for a more effective arms embargo on Sudan. “Canada continues to export increasing amounts of weapons to the UAE … and there’s no evidence that Canada is taking efforts to cancel permits to or to take any real measure to stop this. So they’re not really taking this seriously.” | CBC News

Trump drops tariffs on beef, coffee, tropical fruits amid consumer concerns

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday to get rid of tariffs on a broad swath of commodities, including beef, coffee and tropical fruits. It’s part of a response to pressure from consumers who complain prices are too high. The move comes after voters in off-year elections earlier this month cited economic concerns as their top issue, resulting in big wins for Democrats in races in Virginia and New Jersey. | Globalnews.ca

Media

Maybe Don’t Talk to the New York Times About Zohran Mamdani

The former head of the African Studies program at the liberal-arts college that the NYC Mayor-elect attended speaks about providing information to the NYT about that program. Quite a read: Peter Coviello: Like so many other bits of Times coverage, the whole of the piece is structured as an orchestrated encounter. Some people say this; however, others say this. It’s so offhand you can think you’re gazing through a pane of glass. Only when you stand a little closer, or when circumstances make you a little less blinkered, do you notice the fact which then becomes blinding and finally crazymaking, which is just that there is zero, less than zero, stress put on the relation between those two “sides,” or their histories, or their sponsors, or their relative evidentiary authority, or any of it. Instead, what you get is a piece making the various more or less bovine noises of studious grey-lady impartiality, with the labor of anything resembling “appraisal” surgically excised. | Literary Hub

Science and Technology

ChatGPT Is Testing Group Conversations, But You Can’t Access Them Yet

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, announced on Thursday it’s beginning tests on its new collaboration tool. Group chats on ChatGPT will allow up to 20 members, and users will need to set up a profile before joining. That includes sharing a name, username, and a profile picture. | PCMag

The Calendar

• 1900 ET : Victoria - NDP Interim Leader Don Davies speaks at the BC NDP convention.

• 2000 ET : Winnipeg - PM Carney attends the 112th Grey Cup.

Issued this day …

… in 1949. Sc 285. King George VI with “Postes-Postage”. Design: Herman Herbert Schwartz. Photograph: Dorothy Wilding.

I was asked the other day where these scans come from and the answer is: Anything you see in this space are scans of stamps in my collection. Yes, I’m a philatelist and proud of it. As for the specimen of today’s stamp, I should probably seek an upgrade. Though the copy I have is “Mint” and “Never Hinged” it is not a “Very Fine” copy because the stamp is not wel- centred. Stamps with big even margins are valued much higher than ones like this with uneven margins. In any event: Getting a better copy should not set me back much: The “NH-VF” (stamp collector shorthand for Never Hinged-Very Fine Mint) will likely set me back all of about 40 cents. :)